Desert Dog here, making the first of hopefully many posts here at UFCmania.com to help readers — and bettors — understand UFC odds and the overall betting process.
At first glance, the lines might seem confusing and difficult to figure out. But, I’m here to tell you that UFC betting lines look more complicated than they actually are.
Therefore, I’ll outline the basic things you need to know. And, if you have any questions or something still isn’t clear, just email me or leave a comment below and I’ll respond as soon as possible.
The goal here is to help those UFC fans who somehow don’t find the fights exciting enough to make smart wagers to spice up the night. That’s because a little bet will have you on the edge of your seats, perhaps cheering for someone you never expected, and in the process making money.
In fact, one small bet can cover the entire costs of the $40 pay-per-view fee. And, the more comfortable you become with the process, the more success you will enjoy.
Without further ado, here are the latest odds for the main card courtesy of BetUs.com:
Favorite: Tim Sylvia -280
Underdog: Randy Couture +220
Favorite: Matt Hughes -500
Underdog: Chris Lytle +400
Favorite: Rich Franklin -500
Underdog: Jason MacDonald +400
Favorite: Renato Sobral -350
Underdog: Jason Lambert +275
Favorite: Martin Kampmann -220
Underdog: Drew McFedries +280
First, I want to give UFCmania readers a quick rundown of betting on fights, what the odds mean, and get some general questions rolling.
Desert Dog’s actual picks and match-up analysis will be out tomorrow, Thursday, just in time to place some smart bets prior to UFC 68: “The Uprising” on March 3 in Columbus, Ohio.
The Basics
Odds for mixed martial arts (MMA) fights are most often listed in the American style, where the negative number (i.e. -280) is the odds for the favorite and the positive number (i.e. +220) indicates the underdog.
In terms of money bet, the odds read like this: To bet on Tim Sylvia you have to risk $280 to win $100. To bet on Couture, you win $220 on a bet of $100. In betting on either side, the winnings are on top of your original bet coming back to you. That means a bet of $100 on Couture would net $320 (this figure includes the original $100 out-of-pocket sum you wagered).
You can bet as little as a buck on any fight; however, most if not all online sportsbooks require an initial deposit of $50 to $100.
Going forward, most of Desert Dog’s UFC picks will look like this:
Randy Couture +220: 1 point to win 2.20 points.
In addition, UFC odds relate to a fighters probability of winning. For example, when oddsmakers put MacDonald +400, they believe he has a 20 percent chance of winning.
The calculation isn’t too hard but not very interesting reading. It’s important to note that good betting starts with comparing these odds to what you believe they should be and weighing the risk/benefits.
Don’t worry if that’s something you’re not prepared or willing to do — Desert Dog has got you covered.
Ok, enough of that, so what kind of bettor are you? Are you Chuck Liddell, waiting for one or two homerun punches? Are you Georges St. Pierre setting up the big shot with jabs and leg kicks? Or, maybe you’re that guy who throws haymakers at anything that moves.
Regardless, there are several ways to bet both small and large, conservative and ballsy, for each and every fight fan. And, Desert Dog will be here to walk you through the process-step-by-step.
Feel free to ask questions or touch on something that maybe I didn’t cover. As I mentioned earlier, I’ll be checking in frequently to answer your UFC 68 betting questions and to ensure that UFCmania readers understand how this works.
Just remember, I’ll be back tomorrow with complete analysis, predictions and recommendations for the big event this Saturday.
28 Comments »
Good article. Can you explain the percentage to win calculation further? How does +400 equate to 20% chance of winning? Thanks.
Do you know if BetUS.com or any other sites that allow betting parleys on UFC fights?
very nice article but i dont really get the % winnning could you explain that to a newb like me
Very simple. I only bet even money on my fighters of choice.
In this case, I’ll only bet on the fantastic four….
Tim, Matt, Ace, Babalu.
Jason MacDonald (risking $100 to win $400) is an exceptional value.
somethings telling me you should make that bet
I was kinda hoping no one ever explained betting on UFC ever. Our sport is so young in the minds of Americans, they bring their football betting mentality to MMA. This means that the odds on fighters are ridiculously wrong, especially if one of the fighters has a huge name, like Hughes or Franklin. Giving MacDonald a 400 is a joke. Those are the kind of fights, like Erhardt pointed out, that I look for: big names against quality opponents that most bettors never heard of. In this case, JM’s name is out there, but not enough, so I’ll bet this one ( was planning on doing it anyway ). As you can see with many of the “TUF guys rule” crowd around here, Dana can hype anyone well beyond their ability.
I would love to know what A Silva’s odds were first time out against RF. I woulda bet the house on that one.
Anyway, do your research ( Sherdog fight finder, Youtube, Dailymotiom, fighters websites, call his gym or pr person, etc. ) and never bet what you cant afford to lose. Remember Pride 33!!!!
Nicely said MoreThanUFC.
nosniv,
“Can you explain the percentage to win calculation further? How does 400 equate to 20% chance of winning?”
Tonight I’ll post a reference table on my blog, until then
Using the Franklin (500) and Macdonald (-400) odds…
Get out your calculator, add the winnings plus your initial bet: (400 100)then divide initial bet amount the total(500/100)=.20 This works for the underdog. The oddsmaker thinks MacDonald would only win this fight 2 of 10 times.
For the favorite it’s basically the same. 500 risked plus the winnings of 100 = 600, then divide 100 by 600 = .167 then subtract 1 = .83. The odds makers belive Franklin has an 83% chance of winning.
the 3% difference is the edge the sports book is trying to give themselve.
Nosniv, I may be wrong but I think it goes like this, you bet $100, win $400 plus your $100 bet back = $500. $100/$500 = 20%.
I guess we’ll get the explanation tomorrow.
AJ,
No parlays that I know of for main events, they may start something up during the TUF season.
Erhardt,
it’s defintely a good value….more on that tommorow.
Tell me the truth Desert Dog, Can I make money betting on MMA (assumption being that I have a pretty indepth knowlege of the sport), or is this like Vegas, the longer I play the more money I lose…
On complementing Desert Dog calculation for Jason Mcdonald at 0.2; this can also be interpreted as “THE CONTENDER” has 20% of winning this fight. Good Luck Jason.
Professor Dog, or anybody: What does “under 1 1/2 110″ mean?
TRavis,
Simple answer…Yes. This is not roulette, especially if you know the game, and of course don’t throw your money around like a sailor in bangkok. The oddsmakers at the sports books are getting better but, they are still driven by who the public backs. If there’s huge backing behind a well know name the odds are going to get inflated and often in your favor.
You have to pick and choose your bets, but every event has “off lines”. That are consistantly profitable.
The downside is the number of UFC events is alot fewer than say the number of basketball games a year. So less opportunities to bet.
Erhardt,
I assume you are looking at the full betting lines at BetUS
This is a wager on the length of the fight. So taking the
“under 1 1/2 110″ bet you would lay $100 on the fight ending before the mid point of round 2, if you win you get $110 your original bet of $100.
OK, on the earlier subject of odd versus chance of winning, I was on my third cup of coffee and made things sound a little more complex than they are.
To calculate this for any odds simply take the amount you risk divided by the total amount on the table (what you risk what you win) times 100.
So for 300 on Randomdude you have:
300/(300 100)*100= 75% chance of winning
if you just don’t like math here’s a reference table on my blog. http://ufcbetting.blogspot.com/2007/02/betting-odds-moneyline-to-probability.html
I am really considering betting 100 dollars that Mcdonald will beat Franklin. People just do not recover from beatdowns like the one Franklin took from Silva, and Greg Jackson fighters have been undefeated the last couple of months.
holy shit, if thats the reason you would bet on jmac,save your money, if Rich was facing another defistating striker coming off the silva fight, then you might be onto something, but hes facing a completely different style..and TRavis assumptions are like a holes, Fedor weighs 600 lbs….haha just messing with you dudes, bet away…for i am too poor to bet and the 40 clams for the ppv will put me under anyway
Wow, it just occured to me McFedries is an underdog. Hmmm.
Another interesting one is the Hamill vs Holman fight. Hamill has had 2 fights. If not for TUF, this dude would be fighting in a cornfield in Indiana until ‘09 before he got a shot at the UFC. Holman hasnt really had any competition, but he has disposed of that weak comp fairly quickly. I can find almost nothing out about this guy, but getting more than 3 to 1 on your money might be worth a look.
I just went on the BetUS.com site. The UFC odds for betting on Matt Hamill to win are -280. He looked pretty good in TUF and I think he would’ve won it if he hadn’t been taken out for those bullsh*t reasons. Do you think he’s worth putting $100 on though?
Maniacs-
DD’s picks and recs for UFC 68 will be up this evening. You might want to hold off on placing bets with BetUs.com until you read what he has to say.
He’ll also be available for questions, etc.
I’m waiting for our inhouse oddsman to say his peace, but Hamill really is completely unknown in terms of where he’s at. Yeah, I know this guy was brought in to be a “steppingstone” ( I hate that term ), but if your one of these ppl who seem to think Hamill should be fighting Liddell soon, then bet him I guess, but I would say for the odds, I’d bet the other guy. JMHO, though. At my income bracket with my bills though, I aint putting $100 on either of em! Maybe $25 on Holman.
Guys,
BetUS.com, the guys with the banner at the top of this page, WILL let you parlay the fights. All of them! I just made a $5 parlay with Randy Couture, Hughes, McDonald, Kampmann, Lambert, Holman, Fitch, Dent and Varner. That $5 measly bucks will pay out, get this: Amount: Risking 5.00 To Win 7,212.10 USD.
Needless to say, I am gonna make a few more and see what happens. I did not think UFC could get more exciting, but it does.
Oh, yeah, when you first join BetUS, they will give you free money, DVD’s of hotties, sports schedules. They fuckin’ rock!
Hamill’s odds on BetUS.com are now down to -260. This is better for me, and my $100 I think, but the fact that it just changed in the last couple of hours; does this mean more people are betting on Holman or what? What affects the changes in the lines? I’ll hold off making the bet until your dude gets in, and holding off will hopefully tip the line and give me better odds to bet on.
DVDs of hotties is always good.
MR Blue,
thanks for the heads up on the parlays. These are seen as a bad play by some pro’s but in my opion in MMA fighting this is a great option with little risk.
BetUS is really working to get all the MMA betting business they can which is great for us.